KEY CHALLENGES AND THREATS TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE EU EASTERN PARTNERSHIP INITIATIVE

Authors

  • Oleh Tsebenko Lviv Polytechnic National University
  • Mariia-Tereza Shumska Lviv Polytechnic National University

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.29038/2524-2679-2023-02-62-77

Keywords:

EU Eastern Partnership Initiative, armed conflicts, war, Ukraine, security, threats and challenges

Abstract

The article analyzes key challenges and threats to the Eastern Partnership. Inter- nal and external threats that inhibit the development of the EU Eastern Partner- ship Initiative have been highlighted. The internal ones include: corruption, inhi- bition of democratic processes, oligarchy, inhibition of European reforms, weak level of economic development, lack of desire to integrate into the EU. It is also worth highlighting external threats: the Russian-Ukrainian war, frozen conflicts in the countries of the Eastern Partnership, cyber attacks, terrorism, transnational crime, the withdrawal of Belarus from the Eastern Partnership and its participa- tion in armed aggression against Ukraine, hybrid and information attacks of the Russian Federation, nuclear blackmail of the Russian Federation, energy depen- dence of the countries of the region on Russia. Threats to peace and security in the Eastern Partnership states according to the Normandy Index 2022 have been identified. Key challenges for six countries of the Eastern Partnership: Ukraine, Moldova, Georgia, Azerbaijan, Armenia and Belarus have been analyzed. The article presents a SWOT analysis of the functioning of the EU Eastern Partnership Initiative. Recommendations on countering threats and challenges of the Eastern Partnership have been presented.

References

Deen, B., Zweers, W., Van Loon, I. (2021). The Eastern Partnership. Three dilemmas in a time of troubles. Clingendael Report. URL: https://www.clingendael.org/sites/default/ files/2021-01/the-eastern-partnership.pdf (in English).

Eastern Partnership. Comparison (2022). URL: https://www.europarl.europa.eu/ thinktank/infographics/peaceandsecurity/index.html#/comparison (in English).

Global Terrorism Index 2022 (2022). Institute for Economics and Peace. URL: https:// www.visionofhumanity.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/GTI-2022-web.pdf (in English).

Gressel, G. (2021). EU Security Compact for the Eastern Neighbourhood: Why unity of command is an issue in politics too. Clingendael Report. European Council on Foreign Relations. URL:https://www.clingendael.org/pub/2021/the-eastern-partnership/annex-3/ (in English).

Hartsö, C. (2022). Eastern Partnership and Security. URL: https://www.diva-portal. org/smash/get/diva2:1703296/FULLTEXT01.pdf (in English).

Kaunert, C., Deus Pereira, J. (2023). EU Eastern Partnership, Ontological Secu- rity and EU-Ukraine/Russian warfare. Journal of contemporary European studies, № 31, pp. 1–12 (in English).

Kaunert, Ch. (2022). EU Eastern Partnership, Hybrid Warfare and Russia’s Inva- sion of Ukraine. The European Criminal Law Associations’ Forum, 2022, is. 2, p. 158–164. URL: https://eucrim.eu/articles/eu-eastern-partnership-hybrid-warfare-and-russias-inva- sion-of-ukraine/ (in English).

Normandy Index (2022). URL: https://www.europarl.europa.eu/thinktank/info- graphics/peaceandsecurity/index.html#/normandy-index (in English).

Normandy Index. Azerbaijan (2022). URL: https://www.europarl.europa.eu/think- tank/infographics/peaceandsecurity/index.html#/country-detail/AZE (in English).

Normandy Index. Map (2022). URL: https://www.europarl.europa.eu/thinktank/in- fographics/peaceandsecurity/index.html#/map (in English).

Normandy Index. Moldova (2022). URL: https://www.europarl.europa.eu/think- tank/infographics/peaceandsecurity/index.html#/country-detail/MDA (in English).

Paul, A. (2021). Lessons from the Eastern Partnership: Looking back to move for- ward. URL: https://www.epc.eu/en/Publications/Lessons-from-the-Eastern-Partnership- Looking-back-to-move-forward~44d130 (in English).

Rathaeung, D., Kim, J. (2022). Russia-Ukraine Conflict: Implications for Remit- tance flows to Ukraine and Central Asia. The World Bank Group. URL: https://blogs.world- bank.org/peoplemove/russia-ukraine-conflict-implications-remittance-flows-ukraine-and- central-asia (in English).

Іvasechko, O., Turchyn Ya., Tsebenko O., Vezdenko Ya. (2022). Peculiarities and Prospects of the European Union Involvement in the Settlement of Conflicts on the Terri- tory of the Eastern Partnership Countries. Politics in Central Europe. № 18, pp. 633–660 (in English).

Ivasechko, O. (2021). Threats to peace and security in the Eastern Partnership re- gion according to the Normandy Index in 2021: the case of Ukraine. Current issues of the development of social sciences in the 21st century: materials of the All-Ukrainian. science and practice conf. (Lviv, December 2, 2021). Lviv: Nation. Lviv Polytechnic University. pp. 130–133. URL: https://lpnu.ua/sites/default/files/2020/pages/5446/zbirnik-vseukrainska- npk-ntsa-igsn-2022-kopiya.pdf (in Ukrainian).

Sydoruk, T. (2018). Ten years of the Eastern Partnership: time for a review. Politi- cal Life, No. 1, pp. 1–14 (in Ukrainian).

Turchyn, Ya. (2021). Eastern Partnership and the Russian Federation's polygamy. Current issues of the development of social sciences in the 21st century: materials of the All- Ukrainian. science and practice conf. (Lviv, December 2, 2021). Lviv: Nation. Lviv Polytechnic University, pp. 156–159. URL: https://lpnu.ua/sites/default/files/2020/pages/5446/ zbirnik-vseukrainska-npk-ntsa-igsn-2022-kopiya.pdf (in Ukrainian).

Turchyn, Ya., Ivasechko, O., Tsebenko, O., Sukhorolska, I., Roslon, D. (2022). Prospects for the development of the EU initiative «Eastern Partnership» in the conditions of geopolitical challenges. Monograph. Lviv: Lviv Polytechnic Publishing House. 224 p. (in Ukrainian).

Sheiko, Yu. (2021). Belarus suspends membership in the «Eastern Partnership»: what are the consequences? Deutsche Welle. URL: https://www.dw.com/uk/bilorus-pry- zupyniaie-chlenstvo-u-skhidnomu-partnerstvi-yaki-naslidky/a-58097889 (in Ukrainian).

Published

2023-05-25