THE FEATURES OF THE DEVELOPMENT OF UKRAINE'S FOREIGN TRADE SINCE THE BEGINNING OF THE TWENTIETH CENTURY

Abstract

The need to study the structural dynamics of national export and import was substantiated and the structural changes in Ukraine's foreign economic activity were assessed in the article. It was proved that there have been two integral waves of the increase and decrease of export and import since the beginning of the XX century. The first wave was a stable and rapid growth in export and import, which culminated in a decrease in foreign trade during the 2009 crisis. The next wave was the growth of import and export, which was due to favorable conditions in foreign markets and was interrupted by a political factor - the beginning of the war in 2014. The signs of a new wave of rising of Ukrainian import/exports began in 2016. The conditions for outpacing growth of import were formed in the early 2000s. in the period of relative stability of export and import. Reserves to improve the foreign trade balance were exhausted in 2005. Although the relatively favorable situation for Ukrainian export goods has provided an increase in external revenues, the production capacity of exporting industries has been exhausted. Foreign trade in Ukraine has become largely one-way. The part of imports still remained at about the same level, but it has even increased in recent years, and as a result we have almost 50% of GDP. The results show a high level of openness of the Ukrainian economy, the importance of international trade for its needs and the growing dependence on external factors. A set of factors of such dynamics of import and export were identified in the study. They are: economic and political, external and internal. In particular, the recent decline in both indicators was explained by a change in Ukraine's foreign economic priorities. The key factor of changes in Ukraine's foreign economic priorities was highlighted, which gave impetus to other factors - the events in the Crimea and eastern Ukraine. The similar analysis of the processes in Poland was made for a more detailed understanding and comparison of structural changes in Ukraine's foreign economic activity, the results of which were not in Ukraine's favor.