MIGRATION FACTOR OF REDUCING THE SUSTAINABILITY OF THE WELFARE STATE

Abstract

The impact analysis of immigration on the stability of welfare state is substantiated by: 1) long-term (more than half a century) crisis of the welfare state; 2) rapid growth of the number of immigrants in highly developed countries, especially refugees, whose acceptance and integration is costly. It is noted that the impact of the immigration factor on the welfare state depends on which of the groups of migrants in question (from highly skilled labor migrants, for whom leading countries compete, to refugees from war and conflict zones). It is argued that the burden on the welfare state is growing primarily among refugee immigrants who have difficulty integrating into the new society and labor market. The factors, which the impact of immigration on the welfare state depends on, are indicated: 1) the age of immigrants at which they arrive to the country; 2) the speed at which migrants enter the labor market; 3) the time during which migrants are dependent on state assistance; 4) characteristics of the immigrants’ human capital; 5) the levels of social benefits, the scope of social guarantees provided to migrants, etc. It is emphasized that for the second decade in a row (since the beginning of the global financial crisis in 2008) in most welfare states, both state (budgetary savings) and public support for social programs for immigrants are declining. Following the European migration crisis of 2015, the attention of welfare states’ governments is focused not so much on the integration of migrants as on strengthening the EU's external borders to protect against the uncontrolled flow of refugees. It is noted that the recession after the lockdowns caused by COVID-19, once again strengthens the austerity, even in the most developed welfare states, which affects the realization of social rights of immigrants guaranteed to them. It is emphasized that the growth of the number of immigrants in developed countries, although increasing the pressure on the national institutions of the welfare state, is only one of the factors reducing the resilience of classical models of the welfare state. According to the author of the article, the problem is seen in the inability of the political establishment to organize the rapid integration of newly arrived migrants in the labor market.