SECURITY OF NATURAL GAS SUPPLY TO CONSUMERS IN UKRAINE AND POLAND IN THE FACE OF OPEN RUSSIAN MILITARY AGGRESSION IN 2022 (COMPARATIVE STUDY)
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.29038/2524-2679-2023-01-235-253Keywords:
energy security of Ukraine, energy security of Poland, natural gas, consequences of Russia's military aggression against UkraineAbstract
Security of natural gas supply to consumers in Ukraine and Poland in the face of open Russian military aggression in 2022 (comparative study).
Military operations, including Russian attacks on natural gas production sites controlled by Ukraine and network restrictions, have led to a 7 % year- on-year decline in natural gas production and the temporary loss of natural gas access for hundreds of thousands of Ukrainian consumers. In 2022, 18,5 bcm of natural gas is likely to have been produced. The autumn suc- cesses on the frontline allowed Ukraine to start clearing damage on reco- vered territories and increase the number of new drillings.
The extensive damage to companies using natural gas in production that was caused by Russian attacks and the scale of emigration reduced natural gas consumption in Ukraine by a quarter. Nevertheless, imports were ne- cessary. It was most profitable for the government in Kyiv to bypass transit costs and buy part of the natural gas supplied from Russia via Ukraine to the EU.
Due to the cost of transit, a smaller part of the gas acquired by Ukraine was from other countries (e.g. Norway). The amount of natural gas (owned and owned by foreign companies) in storage in Ukraine at the end of October was 14,2 bcm. In the end, from its western partners Ukraine probably im- ported a total of only 1,5 bcm. Likely, some of the natural gas owned by foreign counterparties stored in Ukrainian storage facilities was purchased. As of 2021, the demand for Polish customers was lower than for Ukrainian needs. According to preliminary data, some 16,15 bcm of natural gas was sent to Polish consumers in 2022. Probably mainly due to the authorities’ protective moves towards households, natural gas transmission to domestic consumers in Poland fell by only less than 17,5 % compared to 2021. Indus- trial use of natural gas has decreased more.
The Polish authorities have completed many investments (or made progress in this area) in natural gas infrastructure long postulated by experts. The degree of depletion of deposits and the high capital intensity of natural gas exploration and production requires a significant increase in investment in natural gas exploration and production to stop the further decline in natural gas production in both countries.
References
Matiichuk, L. P., Pavlova, O., Pavlov, K. (2022). Ethodology for ensuring, regula- ting, and monitoring compliance with the appropriate level of efficiency of the energy security system in Ukraine, Modeling The Development Of The Economic Systems, 3, 49–58, doi.org/10.31891/mdes/2022-5-7
Matiichuk, L. P. (2022) Structure and functioning system of the fuel and en- ergy complex of Ukraine. Innovationand Sustainability, 4, 109–118, doi.org/10.31649/ ins.2022.4.109.118
Shulga, I., Shynkaruk, N., Shytyi, S., Antypov, I. (2022). The Role of Energy Direc- tives in Ensuring EU Energy Security and the Problems of Implementation in Ukrainian Legislation. Journal of Policy & Governance, 02 (01), 1–10, doi.org/10.33002/jpg02010
Iwaszczuk, N., Zapukhliak, I., Iwaszczuk, A., Dzoba, O., Romashko, O. (2022). Un- derground Gas Storage Facilities in Ukraine: Current State and Future Prospects. Energies, 15, 6604. doi.org/ 10.3390/en15186604
Koczan, M. (2022). Poland as a gas hub – opportunities for cooperation with selected countries of Central and Eastern Europe, Rocznik Instytutu Europy Środkowo-Wschodniej, 20 (4), 109–130, DOI: 10.36874/RIESW.2022.4.6
Ahn, S. W. (2022). Security of Natural gas supply: Comparative studies between Germany and Poland, Zeitschrift der Koreanisch-Deutschen Gesellschaft für Sozialwissen- schaften, 32 (4), 195–218, DOI: 10.19032/zkdgs.2022.06.32.4.195
Zych, G., Bronicki, J., Czarnecka, M., Kinelski, G., Kaminski, J. (2023). The Cost of Using Gas as a Transition Fuel in the Transition to Low-Carbon Energy: The Case Study of Poland and Selected European Countries. Energies, 16, 994. URL: https://doi.org/10.3390/ en16020994
Aukati, A., Gunesinge, D., Petrenko, V., Miroshnychenko, V., Kuper, D. E., Efendi, A., Shodri, Sh., Midouz, S., Vaz, E., Petrov, Ya., Halabala, M., Sichkovska, O., Izotov, O., Młodawski, T., Czerwiński, S. (2021). Posylennia intehratsii ukrainskoi ta HAZOVOHO RYNKU. Proiekt enerhetychnoi bezpeky (PEB), 10 bereznia 2021, Kyiv: Tetra Tech ES Inc.
Kosiński, E., Mikulska, A. (2020). Assessing the Rules of Functioning and Orga- nization of the Wholesale Natural Gas Market in the European Union and Ukraine: Legal and Socio-political Perspective. Part 1. The Backdrop: Natural Gas Market in the EU and Ukraine. Prawo i Więź, 4 (34), 125–137, DOI: 10.36128/priw.vi34
Jones, D. (2023). European Electricity Review 2023, URL: https://ember-climate. org/app/uploads/2023/01/Report-European-Electricity-Review-2023.pdf, (accessed on 08.02 2022).
Communication From The Commission To The European Parliament, The Council, The European Economic And Social Committee And The Committee Of The Regions Eu 'Save Energy' (2022). URL: eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/PL/TXT/PDF/?uri=CELEX:52 022DC0240&from=EN pp. 18.
Enerhetyka. URL: www.ukrstat.gov.ua/operativ/pro_stat/Prosto/energ/Energy.pdf (accessed on 01.02 2022).
Natural Gas Information IEA 2022 Edition Database documentation. URL: iea. blob.core.windows.net/assets/570c2075-09a4-4fd1-8074-313365b99ad3/Gas_documenta- tion.pdf (accessed on 09.02 2022).
Wasiuta, O., Wasiuta, S. (2017). Russia’s Hybrid War against Ukraine. Kraków: Arcana, р. 424 (in Polish).
Gas Market Report, Q3-2022 including Gas 2022 medium-term forecast to 2025. URL: https://iea.blob.core.windows.net/assets/c7e74868-30fd-440c-a616-488215894356/ GasMarketReport,Q3-2022.pdf (accessed on 02.02 2023).
Skrzyński, T. (2020). The role of underground gas storage facilities in the continu- ous supply of natural gas to domestic recipients based on the example of the Visegrad Group, Polityka Energetyczna – Energy Policy Journal, 23 (3), 21–40. doi.org/10.33223/ epj/127745
Supply, transformation and consumption of gas, URL: ec.europa.eu/eurostat/ databrowser/view/NRG_CB_GAS custom_4837679/default/table?lang=en (accessed on 07.02.2023).
Mrozowska, S., Wendt, J.A., Tomaszewski, K. (2021). The Challenges of Poland’s Energy Transition, Energies, 14 (23), 8165; doi.org/10.3390/en14238165
Brzeziński, D., Czapigo-Czapla, M., Wójcik, K. (2022). Natural gas, in: Mineral resources of Poland, ed. S. Mazurek, M. Tymiński, A. Malon, M. Szuflicki, Warsaw: Polish Geological Institute, National Research Institute, р. 73–78.
The Annual Report 2021 Towarowa Giełda Energii S. A. URL: https://tge.pl/dane- statystyczne) (in polish, accessed on 02.02 2023).
IEA, How to Avoid Gas Shortages in the European Union in 2023 A practical set of actions to close a potential supply-demand gap. URL: www.iea.org/reports/how-to-avoid- gas-shortages-in-the-european-union-in-2023 (accessed on 02.02 2023).
Matuszak S., Ukraine: how the gas sector performed in 2022, URL: https://www.osw. waw.pl/pl/publikacje/analizy/2023-01-12/ukraina-wyniki-sektora-gazowego-w-2022-roku (accessed on 13.01.2023).
Natural gas price statistics. URL: ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index. php?title=Natural_gas_price_statistics (accessed on 29.01.2023).
IEA, Energy Technology Perspectives 2023. URL: https://www.iea.org/reports/ energy-technology-perspectives-2023 (accessed on 09.02 2023).
Further update on the trading capacity with Ukraine/Moldova URL: www.ent- soe.eu/news/2022/09/22/further-update-on-the-trading-capacity-with-ukraine-moldova/ (accessed on 29.01.2023).
Gaz-System sent less gas to consumers. URL: https://www.cire.pl/artykuly/serwis- informacyjny-cire-24/w-2022-r-gaz-system-przeslal-do-odbiorcow-17-5-proc-mniej-gazu- niz-rok-wczesniej (accessed on 29.01.2023).
Paszkowski, M. (2022). Prospects for growth in natural gas production in Central European countries Komentarze Instytutu Europy Środkowej, 110 (in Polish).
Sikora, A. (2023). LNG in Poland–2022 summary. URL: https://www.cire.pl/ar- tykuly/opinie/polskie-lng--podsumowanie-2022-r- (in polish, accessed on 09.02.2023).
Ruszel, M., Kucharska, A. (2020). Diversification of natural gas supply sources in the countries of the Visegrad Group – challenges and prospects for development, Lublin: Instytut Europy Środkowej, p. 75. (in Polish).
