CHINA-RUSSIA MILITARY COOPERATION: PRECONDITIONS, ALTERNATIVES, AND DEVELOPMENT SCENARIOS

Abstract

The degree of neutrality of the Buddhist principle of the «Middle Way» in China’s foreign policy raises doubts, given its increasing role in global geopoliti- cal processes. The question arises as to how significantly a state, which is for- mally not involved in a war, can influence its outcome. The main issue lies in the potential strengthening of military-technical cooperation between Russia’s allied states, which could have unexpected consequences for the course of the Russia- Ukraine war, global security, and the redistribution of power in the world. The paper examines in detail the political and economic preconditions leading to this situation, forecasts possible scenarios for the further development of policy, and provides recommendations for minimizing risks to the international community. One of the key threats in this context is the transfer of technology and equipment from China to Russia, which could be used for military purposes. The political preconditions for this process involve a long history of cooperation between Rus- sia and China, based on both states’ desire to counter one of the leading world powers. Both countries show rapprochement based on shared undemocratic va- lues, aiming to strengthen their positions in a multipolar world. An important element is the mutual benefit from this cooperation: Russia potentially supports China in escalating conflicts of the 21st century, while China will help enhance Russia’s influence on the international stage. Economic preconditions for this process include active trade cooperation between Russia and China. Against the backdrop of Western sanctions, Russia increasingly relies on Chinese economic support. In addition to financial resources, Russia receives dual-use technology from China, which can be used for both civilian and military purposes. Such a situation poses potential challenges to international security, as the supply of technology could contribute to the escalation of conflicts and destabilization in various regions of the world. The study offers three possible scenarios for the development of the Russia-Ukraine war, emphasizing the global implications of this conflict. The war between Russia and Ukraine is not a local event; its conse- quences will have a broad impact on the entire international system.