THE NATURE OF THE CURRENT GEOPOLITICAL CRISIS AND THE MAIN TRENDS OF CHANGES IN THE WORLD ORDER
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.29038/2524-2679-2024-02-23-42Keywords:
geopolitical crisis, “geopolitical storm”, the world order, transformation of the world orderAbstract
The article contains a scientific qualification and assessment of the prospects for the systemic transformation of the modern international space through the identification and analysis of the factors/triggers that caused the current geo- political crisis (“storm”) and the dominant trends of this process. An analysis of the current and prospective “models” of reformatting the world system in the modern geopolitical paradigm is carried out. It is shown that the world is currently in a state of systemic uncertainty due to the unfolding of a deep geopolitical crisis. The latter is considered as a «rupture and destruction» of established macropolitical proportions and a complication of the configuration of international relations, due to which the concept of “geopolitical storm” was qualified for the first time and the factors that caused it are identified. It is determined that the main of them are powerful changes in the actions and interactions of the key «power centers» of the global level
– the USA, China and the Russian Federation, which is aggressively and very dangerously trying to enter the pool of superpowers. It is proved that the trig- gers of the modern «geopolitical storm» were: the Syrian war and the associ- ated mass refugee migrations; the defeat of the USA in Afghanistan; the un- precedented escalation of military events in Europe, accompanied by nuclear blackmail by Russia against Ukraine and the West; a sharp aggravation of the political and economic rivalry between the USA and China; the Arab-Israeli war in the Middle East in 2023–2024, etc.
It is noted that the consequences of the “geopolitical storm” are the entry of the world community into a situation where the prospects for changing the format of the world order in the very near future are becoming quite real. The article presents and characterizes two possible options for such a change – the conditionally negative SASI-world (Shaky, Anarchic, Selfish, Irresponsible) and the conditionally positive CAMPUS-world (Competitive, Agile, Multi- vector, Pragmatic, Unbalanced, Self-governing).
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