LOCAL ELECTIONS IN TURKEY 2024: END OF ERDOGAN’SRULE OR NEW OPPORTUNITIES FOR THE DEMOCRATICWORLD?

Abstract

The unexpected victory of the opposition Republican People’s Party in Turkey’s local elections on March 31 raised intriguing questions about the future of Presi- dent R. T. Erdogan after more than two decades in power. Only 10 months after being appointed to a new term, a significant portion of voters voted against him and the Justice and Development Party, his biggest defeat in history. The presi- dent acknowledged the magnitude of this defeat, calling the results “not only a loss of voters, but also a loss of soul and blood.” This article analyzes the factors that contributed to this outcome and argues that it was more a protest by Turk- ish voters than a direct endorsement of the opposition’s policies. People voted against Erdogan’s arrogance and authoritarian style, as well as against the low quality of his party’s candidates, the deteriorating economy, especially for pen- sioners, and the rapidly deteriorating justice system. Four factors help frame this shift in political support for Erdogan: a deteriorating economy, especially for pensioners whose purchasing power has plummeted; a declining sense of justice due to reports detailing the corruption of the judiciary from the top; Erdogan’s arrogance and authoritarian style and the poor quality of his candidates; and the CHP’s new image as the center of the opposition. Understanding the factors that led to this unprecedented electoral defeat is crucial to predicting the future of Turkish politics.

The main opposition party has also benefited from skillful leadership less than a

year after its defeat in the presidential election. While the outcome of the 2024 vote indicates a desire for democratic governance and accountability, it remains unclear at this early stage whether this is a temporary deviation from the authori- tarian style of Turkish politics. The implications of this political change for the international community are discussed. The results of the local elections offered Turkey a new way forward. They demonstrate that the vision of uniting secular- ists, nationalists, conservatives, Turks, Kurds, Sunnis, and Alevis around a com- mon vision for the country is not just an idealistic dream. The voters’ initiative to bridge these divisions suggests that this vision will soon be possible to realize. This key moment underscores the need for parties, especially the CHP, to em- brace inclusiveness and take bold initiatives to become a political home for all citizens. Looking to the future, officials, party leaders and elites should strive for greater unity among the country’s diverse population.