PERCEPTION OF THE EU'S INTERNATIONAL ACTIVITIES THROUGH THE LENS OF VUCA: CHALLENGES AND PROSPECTS
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.29038/2524-2679-2024-02-42-58Keywords:
European Union, VUCA, international relations, EU enlargement policy, security policy, energy policy, geopoliticsAbstract
The concept of VUCA (volatility, uncertainty, complexity, ambiguity) is a tool for understanding the modern, ever-changing, and unpredictable global environment. Initially introduced in a military context, this concept has found broad application across various fields, including business, management, and inter- national relations. In the context of European integration and the activities of the European Union, VUCA can be applied to analyze and assess the complex challenges faced by the Union, particularly in its enlargement policy, relations with third countries, security, and energy policies.
This article examines how the components of VUCA manifest in the interna- tional political activities of the EU, highlighting the importance of adaptive and strategic approaches to overcoming these challenges. Volatility is evident in the rapid and unpredictable changes in political and economic conditions, which impact the stability and development of European institutions; instability in relations with third countries poses significant challenges to the formulation of a common external policy for the EU. Uncertainty is manifested in the dif- ficulty of forecasting future political and economic events, complicating stra- tegic planning and decision-making. This is particularly relevant in the context of the EU's enlargement policy, where uncertainty regarding political support for new members can affect the Union's stability. Complexity arises from the multifaceted nature of international relations, encompassing interactions with various political, economic, and social actors. Ambiguity is associated with the multifaceted and unpredictable consequences of political decisions, which can lead to misinterpretations and strategic miscalculations. This is especially apparent in security matters, where ambiguity in relations with third countries creates additional risks for the EU.
Additionally, we identify prospective directions for further research that can help to gain a deeper understanding and effectively address the problems facing the EU in the modern world.
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